Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority predicting widespread coral bleaching during the summer

Using an experimental algorithm developed from satellite monitoring of sea surface temperatures, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are able to predict (often with some accuracy) the coral bleaching outlook for the upcoming season (for more information on the model itself, see this link).The forecast for the Austral summer (Nov ’08 – Feb ’09) is intensifying, with potential ‘severe bleaching’ predicted in the Northern sectors of the GBR – so much so that the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority is concerned about the rising sea temperatures.

The area most likely to suffer thermal stress with the potential for severe bleaching during the next 15 weeks is a region spanning Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and the Far Northern section of the GBR. Less severe thermal stress is a expected in a broader region including all of the Cairns section of the GBR. To the west, the model currently predicts a threat of moderate levels of thermal stress from southern Borneo across through Timor-Leste to southern Papua New Guinea and Torres Strait. This level of potential stress then picks up in the central GBR and east extending across Vanuatu and New Caledonia to the east-southeast of Fiji. Some mild stress may be seen around Madagascar. The greatest warming is expected to begin from late January through February.

It seems that the northern GBR is likely to be affected with the occurence of localised bleaching, but the impact across broader scales (i.e southern GBR) looks less severe. Given that the Bureau of Meterology are predicting a cyclone season “on the upper side of normal“, the impacts of cyclones passing through the coral sea could potentially dissapate the thermal stress build up that triggers coral bleaching (read more). We will keep posting updates on the 2008/2009 season as the bleaching outlook changes.

Coral Reef news round-up

“Reef guide to benefit research” (Sydney Morning Herald, 26/11/08)

‘I mean we’re not going to have reefs for much longer but we can at least have them a bit longer.” Pat Hutchings, a 40-year veteran of coral reef research, is not optimistic for the long-term future of the Great Barrier Reef but she is determined to do everything within her power to help its survival.

Hutchings has been poking around reefs since her student days, before scuba diving existed outside the armed forces. “When I went to learn in the mid to late ’60s, we had to make our own wetsuits – you couldn’t buy them,” she says. “There were a few naval divers but it wasn’t available to students. Prior to that people swam around with a box with glass on the bottom to look through.” (Read More)

“Ending the reef madness”
(The Australian, 26/11/08)

OVE Hoegh-Guldberg is blunt about the gloomy prospects for the Great Barrier Reef.

“We have no time to lose,” said the director of the University of Queensland’s Centre for Marine Studies.

“We are three decades away from having a reef with no coral and less than half the species we have today. It is crunch time.”

Speaking on the eve of the publication of a unique book, The Great Barrier Reef, the first comprehensive field guide to the world’s largest continous reef, he stressed the imperative to act. “Part of the mission for us as scientists is to pass on the urgency and excitement about these issues.” (Read More)

“Climate change, starfish hit Fiji Reefs: Study”
(ABC News, 24/11/08)

Climate change and a starfish outbreak have shrunk coral reefs near Fiji, forcing locals to change their lifestyle.

A new study, published in Global Change Biology, has found that from 2000-2006 the size of coral reefs around Fiji’s remote Lau Islands contracted by about 50 per cent.

Dr Nick Graham from James Cook University, who took part in the study, says fishing and habitat disturbance are having a big impact.

“The area was disturbed by a crown of thorns starfish outbreak in about 2000 and then, the subsequent year, there was also a coral bleaching event associated with climate change,” Mr Graham said.

“We were pretty shocked at just how severe the impact was.” (Read More)

“Oceans acidifying faster than predicted, threatening shellfish”
(Bloomberg, 25/11/08)

Oceans are acidifying 10 times faster than predicted, threatening heightened damage to coral reefs and shellfish, University of Chicago scientists said.

Researchers took more than 24,000 pH measurements over eight years and found the rate at which the ocean is becoming more acidic correlates with the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, or CO2, the university said in a statement. When CO2, which helps cause global warming, dissolves in water, it forms carbonic acid.

“The acidity increased more than 10 times faster than had been predicted by climate change models and other studies,” University of Chicago ecology and evolution professor Timothy Wooton said in the statement. “This increase will have a severe impact on marine food webs and suggests that ocean acidification may be a more urgent issue than previously thought.” (Read More)

New book release: The Great Barrier Reef

“The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is 344,400 square kilometres in size and is home to one of the most diverse ecosystems in the world. This comprehensive guide describes the organisms and ecosystems of the Great Barrier Reef, as well as the biological, chemical and physical processes that influence them. Contemporary pressing issues such as climate change, coral bleaching, coral disease and the challenges of coral reef fisheries are also discussed.

In addition,the book includes a field guide that will help people to identify the common animals and plants on the reef, then to delve into the book to learn more about the roles the biota play.

Beautifully illustrated and with contributions from 33 international experts, The Great Barrier Reef is a must-read for the interested reef tourist, student, researcher and environmental manager. While it has an Australian focus, it can equally be used as a baseline text for most Indo-Pacific coral reefs”

(View sample pdf or see CSIRO publishing website for ordering information)

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Great Barrier Reef ‘could adapt to avoid climate doom’

Great Barrier Reef ‘could adapt to avoid climate doom” (1/11/2008) missed the bigger picture. While I agree that corals have a capacity to adapt to warming waters, it is my firm view that the rate of adaption will be too slow to prevent major loss of biodiversity at current levels and trends in greenhouse gas emissions.

Serious threat to the future of the Reef is not a distant theoretical possibility. The Great Barrier Reef has already had two near misses. Unprecedented, widespread coral death from bleaching occurred in 1998 and 2002. About 50 per cent of the Reef’s corals bleached over a very hot summer with most corals then recovering when peak temperatures eased (only five per cent died).

The Great Barrier Reef’s capacity to survive this mounting pressure is through building the Reef’s health and its ability to repair itself. Poor quality water not only contributes to the risk of bleaching it can also inhibit the corals ability to recover after a bleaching event. Australians are responding to this challenge. We are cleaning up our rivers that now carry excess fertiliser and pesticides; restoring coastal wetlands that not only catch excess silt from floods but provide nursery habitats for many species of fish; preventing pollution from sewage; preventing overfishing of top predators such as sharks and avoiding the accidental loss of iconic species such as dugong and turtle.

The UN report “Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable” captures the  essence of this global problem. The strongest possible action on emissions reduction is needed on a global scale, and local action is needed to help maintain the Reef’s ability to withstand the inevitable and increasing pressure it faces each summer.

R  Reichelt
Chairman, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

“Great Barrier Reef could adapt to climate change, scientists say” – Facts, fallacies and fanciful thinking.

The Australian newspaper published an article this weekend entitled “Great Barrier Reef could adapt to climate change, scientists say”.

THE prediction of a prominent marine biologist that climate change could render the Great Barrier Reef extinct within 30 years has been labelled overly pessimistic for failing to account for the adaptive capabilities of coral reefs.

University of Queensland marine biologist Ove Hoegh-Guldberg said yesterday that sea temperatures were likely to rise 2C over the next three decades, which would undoubtedly kill the reef.

But several of Professor Hoegh-Guldberg’s colleagues have taken issue with his prognosis.

Andrew Baird, principal research fellow at the Australian Research Council’s Centre for Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, said there were “serious knowledge gaps” about the impact rising sea temperatures would have on coral.

“Ove is very dismissive of coral’s ability to adapt, to respond in an evolutionary manner to climate change,” Dr Baird said.

“I believe coral has an underappreciated capacity to evolve. It’s one of the biological laws that, wherever you look, organisms have adapted to radical changes.”

Dr Baird acknowledged that, if left unaddressed, climate change would result in major changes to the Great Barrier Reef.

“There will be sweeping changes in the relative abundance of species,” he said. “There’ll be changes in what species occur where.

“But wholesale destruction of reefs? I think that’s overly pessimistic.”

Dr Baird said the adaptive qualities of coral reefs would mitigate the effects of climate change.

I must say I’m a little amazed that Andrew Baird has come out with such poorly supported statements.  In fact, his conclusions seem to depend almost entirely on his personal opinion!  The argument that corals are able to magically “adapt” over one or two decades to climate change (even though their generation times are often longer) has come up many times over the years – always, with a complete dearth of evidence to support it.

I wrote to Andrew Baird yesterday, to try and understand if there was something that he knew that I might have missed in the scientific lecture.  In response, Andrew sent me a recent article published by Jeff Maynard and himself (Maynard et al 2008).

Unfortunately, the article is an opinion piece (a bit like the newspaper article) that is poorly supported by anything but the most scant evidence (if you could actually call it that) from literature.   I have responded to these types of articles before, but frustrated, here we go again:

Maynard et al (2008) state the following as important evidence that corals can adapt to changes in the environment, and therefore that they can adapt to the current very rapid changes in ocean temperature and acidity.

“..geographic variation in bleaching thresholds within species, sometimes over scales <100km, provides circumstantial evidence for ongoing evolution of temperature tolerance between both species and reef”

Let me start by saying that no credible biologist would doubt the role of evolution in the shaping of the physiology and ecology of corals with respect to temperature.  Biological populations evolve in response to stress.  However, the mere observation of geographic variation in thermal tolerance, does not give any hint  about the rates or the length of time that these changes have taken to occur.  Importantly, this statement does not equate to evidence that thermal tolerance can evolve in ecological time.  The only way that Andrew Baird could convince anyone of this particular somewhat fanciful leap of logic is to present data that show that coral populations can rapidly evolved in the period of years.  They can’t, and they haven’t.

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Will we leave the Great Barrier Reef for our children?

Amidst the current policy debate in Australia on climate change is a surreal argument that policies that will destroy the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are acceptable and economically rational. Ross Garnaut was alive to the damage to the GBR when saying Australia should initially aim for a global consensus to stabilise greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at 550 parts per million. Garnaut (2008a: 38) was brutally frank in his supplementary draft report:

“The 550 strategy would be expected to lead to the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef and other coral reefs.”

His final report does not shy away from this conclusion (Garnaut 2008b).

The Australian and Queensland governments have always silently avoided this point when explaining the costs and benefits of their climate policies. Neither has ever stated a stabilisation target for the rise in global temperatures or greenhouse gases. To do so would expose them to the criticism that their policies will not save the GBR or a host of other ecosystems.

Garnaut’s frank admission reflects the findings of research of the impacts of climate change to the GBR since mass coral bleaching occurred globally in 1998 and 2002. Rising sea temperatures and increasing acidity of the oceans due to our use of fossil fuels are now well-recognized as major threats to coral reefs and the marine ecosystem generally in coming decades.

 Coral bleaching and partial recovery on Pelorus Island, GBR: (a) 1998; (b) 2002; and (c) 2004. Source: Schuttenberg H and Marshall P, A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching (GBRMPA, Townsville, 2006), p12.

Coral bleaching and partial recovery on Pelorus Island, GBR: (a) 1998; (b) 2002; and (c) 2004. Source: Schuttenberg H and Marshall P, A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching (GBRMPA, Townsville, 2006), p12.

In relation to coral bleaching the IPCC (2007b: 12) found that:

“Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals.”

The findings of the IPCC suggest that a rise of 1°C in mean global temperatures and, correspondingly, sea surface temperatures above pre-industrial levels is the maximum that should be aimed for if the global community wishes to protect coral reefs. The range of 1-3°C is the danger zone and 2°C is not safe. Supporting this conclusion Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and his colleagues concluded in a review of the likely impacts of climate change to the GBR edited by Johnson and Marshall (2007: 295):

“Successive studies of the potential impacts of thermal stress on coral reefs have supported the notion that coral dominated reefs are likely to largely disappear with a 2°C rise in sea temperature over the next 100 years. This, coupled with the additional vulnerability of coral reefs to high levels of acidification once the atmosphere reaches 500 parts per million [CO2], suggests that coral dominated reefs will be rare or non-existent in the near future.”

The IPCC’s (2007a: 826) best estimate of climate sensitivity found that stabilising greenhouse gases and aerosols at 350 parts per million carbon dioxide equivalents (ppm CO2-eq) would be expected to lead to a rise in mean global temperatures of 1°C, stabilising at 450 ppm CO2-eq will lead to a rise of 2°C, and stabilising at 550 ppm CO2-eq will lead to a rise of 3°C.

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Australian Government addresses Great Barrier Reef water quality issues

A report released yesterday by the Queensland Premier Anna Bligh showed that water quality on the Great Barrier Reef is not improving, and that further action is needed to reverse the ongoing decline. As part of the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan initiated by the Australian and Queensland governments, the 2007 Water Quality Report is the first step in a four year process, addressing water quality issues such as catchment pressures, marine ecosystem health and land management practices affecting the Queensland coastline and Great Barrier Reef.

Some of the key findings of the report seem to confirm what scientists have previously observed: that over the last 150 years, the catchments adjacent to inshore reefs have been extensively modified for agriculture (e.g. sugar cane), cattle and sheep grazing, tourism, mining and urban development, leading to significant increased in sediments, nutrients and pesticides impacting upon the inshore Great Barrier Reef. From the report, monitoring of priority catchments has shown that:

  • 6.6 million tonnes of sediment are discharged in the reef lagoon annually (four times higher than estimated pre-European settlement levels)
  • 16,600 tonnes of nitrogen are discharged in the reef lagoon annually (five times higher than estimated pre-European settlement levels)
  • 4,180 tonnes of phosphorous are discharged in the reef lagoon annually (four times higher than estimated pre-European settlement levels)

In response to the report, Premier Bligh called for a summit on reef water-quality issues in the next month:

“Work done to date as part of the Plan includes financial incentives to help farmers improve land management practices and targeting diffuse pollution from broadscale land use,”

“However, since 2003 many external factors have deteriorated including the effects of climate change, coral bleaching and ocean acidification.

“It has increased the urgency for more work to be done.

“I have discussed this matter with the Prime Minister and met with Environment Minister Peter Garrett.

“We agreed that the first step will be a joint Commonwealth-state reef water quality summit at Parliament House at the end of this month,” she said.

“The summit will bring together the best minds from the environmental and scientific fields to study the latest data and discuss what urgent action we need to take to prevent further damage to – or worse – the complete demise of the reef.” (Link to Media Statement)

The Environment Minister Peter Garrett also acknowledges the issue:

“We’ve specifically committed $200 million to reef rescue knowing that we need to provide additional resources, additional investment, and additional effort to safeguard what is one of our most important national and international natural resources and treasures” (Link)

I look forward to the proposed summit and applaud the Queensland government for taking such forward action in addressing water quality issues – it seems for Peter Garrett (pictured above left in typical Midnight Oil attire) there is no excuse!

Australian coral reefs in the news: past, present, future

“Ancient reef found in outback” (Courier News, September 22nd, 2008)

AN ancient underwater reef discovered in Australia’s outback could unlock the secrets of the world’s climate change history, scientists said.

Located in South Australia’s Flinders Ranges, the 650-million-year-old reef existed during a period of tropical climate between two major ice age events, scientist Jonathan Giddings said in a media release today.

(Link to full story)

Explorers Find Hundreds Of Undescribed Corals (Science Daily, 19th September, 2008)

Hundreds of new kinds of animal species surprised international researchers systematically exploring waters off two islands on the Great Barrier Reef and a reef off northwestern Australia — waters long familiar to divers.

The expeditions, affiliated with the global Census of Marine Life, help mark the International Year of the Reef and included the first systematic scientific inventory of spectacular soft corals, named octocorals for the eight tentacles that fringe each polyp.

(Link to full story)

Distance no barrier to reef care (The Australian, September 23rd, 2008)

THE Australian Institute of Marine Science has begun using one of the world’s first reef-based internet protocol networks to monitor the impact of destructive forces on the Great Barrier Reef.

Using waterproof Next G modems, adaptive sensor equipment and solar-powered buoys to float the devices, AIMS has installed two wireless IP networks that can transmit data in real time up to 100km offshore.

“We’ve been hit by a number of coral-bleaching events over the past 10 years but until now we’ve had no way to monitor the causes unless we’ve been there in person,” Great Barrier Reef Observing System project manager Scott Bainbridge said.

(Link to full story)

High coral cover and diversity at Magnetic Island, Great Barrier Reef

 

Here are some underwater photographs taken at a recent field trip at Magnetic Island, inshore Great Barrier Reef. These reefs are usually highly turbid, based 8km away from the Townsville shoreline.  I’m often suprised at the diversity and high cover of some of these inshore reefs, and the visibility at Magnetic this day finally lifted above it’s usual "pea-soup" consistency to get some good photographs.

 

Queensland’s climate has shifted south, research shows

The Courier-Mail, August 07, 2008

TAKING a dip in the ocean at Redcliffe these days is like swimming at Maryborough in 1950, new research has revealed.

Scientists say global warming sceptics should dip their toes in the water off a Queensland beach if they want proof the phenomenon exists.

They claim climate zones have moved south by more than 200km in the past 60 years, so Brisbane’s climate has moved to Byron Bay to make way for a more balmy weather pattern.

Australian Institute of Marine Science researcher Janice Lough revealed the findings in a paper published by the American Geophysical Union.

She said she was in no doubt the changes were due to global warming caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.

“Sea surface temperatures are significantly warming along the northwest and northeast coasts of Australia – regions containing well-protected and internationally significant tropical marine ecosystems,” she says in the research paper.

Dr Lough looked at sea surface temperatures recorded by ships and from satellite technology from 1950 to 2007.

She analysed results from measurements taken as far north as Thursday Island in the Torres Strait and south to Coffs Harbour. She also analysed temperatures off the northwest coast of Australia.

She found sea surface temperatures had been rising by as much as 0.12C per decade, which, with no further increases in greenhouse gas emissions, would make waters off southeast Queensland 2C warmer within the next 100 years.

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